Federal forecasts for the operation of major dams on the Colorado River indicate that if drought conditions continue, Lake Powell could see another significant drop to 39 percent in one year. Basin-wide storage could drop from 57 to 48 percent as water users continue to use water at pre-drought rates.
BuRec's "2004 Draft Annual Operating Plan" forecasts a range of inflow scenarios for Lake Powell reservoir from 3.8 to 15.6 million acre-feet. This would equate to a range of reservoir levels from 39 to 83 percent. The lower level would represent a near repeat of 2002, when flows into Powell reservoir were 75 percent below normal. Normal flows estimated by BuRec are approximately 12 million acre-feet, flows not seen since 1997.
"During the drought of 1942 to 1977, flows were off by 19 percent. Taking increased diversions above Lake Powell reservoir since that time, which are now approximately 4.7 million acre-feet per year, it's easy to see why Lake Powell continues to drop, " says John Weishiet, conservation director for Living Rivers.
Since year 2000, inflows into Lake Powell have averaged just 50 percent of normal: 62, 59, 25 and 54 percent respectively. Presently, Lake Powell reservoir is reported to be at 51 percent capacity, down last year from 59 percent. The actual amount of available water is 50 percent, as BuRec is not compensating for .5 million acre-feet of storage lost to sediment since its last inventory was conducted in 1986.
If inflows into Lake Powell reservoir continue to average 50 percent of normal, or about six million acre-feet per year, this would result in the reservoir level dropping an additional eight percent to 10.7 million acre-feet, or 44 percent of capacity. This would bring the reservoir elevation down 140 feet from full. Only two of the reservoirs six marinas would be operational. Commercial and private Colorado River rafting trips, which normally end at Lake Powell reservoir, would have no way to get off the reservoir, short of rowing or motoring their rafts to the nearest functioning marina.
"This is a multi-million dollar industry that we are about to lose," adds Weisheit. "First the Bureau of Reclamation killed the rafting industry through Glen Canyon when they built Glen Canyon Dam, and now they're stopping us from running the rivers upstream too."
